Will John Roberts rule with for Trump on Jack Smith's Supreme Court petition to see if Donald Trump has immunity ?

Question

Thanks to @Jason1e41 for suggesting this market.

I had created similar markets with Clarence Thomas as the starring Justice. This market stars The Honorable Chief Justice of the United States -- John Roberts.

This is my second in the John Roberts, Donald Trump, SCOTUS Trifecta Nexus :)  Watch for more markets.

The question is will John Roberts be will rule for the Trump or against Trump

RESOLVE YES -- If his opinion either supports or concurs with Trump side and grants Trump Immunity.

RESOLVE NO -- otherwise

Supreme Court justices can issue different opinions even when they are ruling the same way. Even if John Roberts has a different reasoning than others, but rules for Trump, this resolves to yes.

Recusal will result in an N/A. SCOTUS not granting certiorari and therefore not hearing the case will also result in N/A. If this case is resolved by SCOTUS in any way that we will not know the votes of the Justices, it will result in N/A as well.

Also, I am not saying which way the SCOTUS majority will rule. The main question will John Roberts support the Trump SCOTUS Bench Bloc or not.

Resolved after the supreme court issues its decision in this matter.

To maintain the predictive nature of this market, I intend to close this market for all new Trading approximately one week after the SCOTUS finishes hearing the arguments for this case. So please feel to trade based on the proceedings in the front of the SCOTUS during the hearing. But I don't want this market to latch to 0.1% or 99.99% by letting trading go on till the ruling is made public.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (11 traders, as of May 25, 2024).