Convention occurs, but neither are framers

 that both accounts will not be permitted to participate. If both Orangey and Tumbles are somehow included as framers, this market will handle it by resolving both options to 50%.

Resolution of this market will be decided (in part) by the result of this poll:

This resolves to ‘Convention does not occur’ if current plans are derailed and a continuous month goes by where no credible plans to move forward with a constitutional convention (in the reasonably near future) are scheduled.