Threads overtakes X in daily users and becomes the leading text-based social network.

'base':13 'becom':8 'daili':5 'lead':10 'network':15 'overtak':2 'social':14 'text':12 'text-bas':11 'thread':1 'user':6 'x':3

Bluesky begins to wither as its development team prioritizes building its underlying protocol over growth, community management, and making improvements to the user experience.

'begin':2 'blueski':1 'build':10 'communiti':16 'develop':7 'experi':24 'growth':15 'improv':20 'make':19 'manag':17 'priorit':9 'protocol':13 'team':8 'under':12 'user':23 'wither':4

Google mostly catches up to OpenAI in LLM quality and begins to neutralize GPT's lead.

'begin':11 'catch':3 'googl':1 'gpt':14 'lead':16 'llm':8 'most':2 'neutral':13 'openai':6 'qualiti':9

The quality of search results degrades as Google proves unable to reliably detect AI-generated content.

'ai':15 'ai-gener':14 'content':17 'degrad':6 'detect':13 'generat':16 'googl':8 'prove':9 'qualiti':2 'reliabl':12 'result':5 'search':4 'unabl':10

Scaled-up AI-generated sludge outcompetes many digital media companies for advertising and affiliate-link dollars, sparking further waves of job losses and consolidation.

'advertis':14 'affili':17 'affiliate-link':16 'ai':5 'ai-gener':4 'compani':12 'consolid':27 'digit':10 'dollar':19 'generat':6 'job':24 'link':18 'loss':25 'mani':9 'media':11 'outcompet':8 'scale':2 'scaled-up':1 'sludg':7 'spark':20 'wave':22

The US presidential election is full of synthetic media, and it mostly doesn’t matter.

'doesn':13 'elect':4 'full':6 'matter':15 'media':9 'most':12 'presidenti':3 'synthet':8 'us':2

Fragmentation in social media will make it more difficult to understand which narratives are resonating most with voters.

'difficult':9 'fragment':1 'make':6 'media':4 'narrat':13 'reson':15 'social':3 'understand':11 'voter':18

TikTok skates unscathed through another presidential administration.

'administr':7 'anoth':5 'presidenti':6 'skate':2 'tiktok':1 'unscath':3

Apple's Vision Pro is successful enough to revive interest in mixed reality and the metaverse.

'appl':1 'enough':7 'interest':10 'metavers':16 'mix':12 'pro':4 'realiti':13 'reviv':9 'success':6 'vision':3

The number of people who say they are in romantic relationships with AI companions will increase sharply.

'ai':13 'companion':14 'increas':16 'number':2 'peopl':4 'relationship':11 'romant':10 'say':6 'sharpli':17

Meta kills off its incomprehensible celebrity-based AI characters.

'ai':9 'base':8 'celebr':7 'celebrity-bas':6 'charact':10 'incomprehens':5 'kill':2 'meta':1

! Huge thanks to Bolton for volunteering both the idea & the seed mana for this market (how generous! 😁)

All of the above predictions are quoted verbatim from his newsletter, but I tried to excerpt only the most pertinent information from the paragraph-predictions. 

See here for a full explanation on his blog, Platformer. 

(The predictions post is free to read without signing up, but it will ask for your email. You can say no.)

 point all bettors need to understand is that the only additional criterion I add on top of Casey's is that the predictions 

 EOY 2024. This does NOT require the prediction content to have occurred in full 

 in 2024; e.g. we may have reliable reporting in January 2024 about GPT-5 being trained in 2023, and that would count as a "come true" for the purposes of both markets. That said, nothing that came true 

January 1st, 2025 counts for fairness/clarity/intelligibility. If you disagree with this rule, please do not bet on this market.

NB: the time of reporting on an event =/= the time the event occurs (or fails to occur). 

Given this qualifier, I reserve the right to extend the 

 date (tentatively scheduled for January 3rd, 2025) for any reasonable extent beyond the 

 date (firmly at December 31st, 2024). I can't foresee any reason it will need to extend beyond January 31st, 2025 at this juncture, but at the absolute latest I will resolve it by Valentine's Day, 2025 if there are serious ambiguities that need time to consider or research. This outcome is especially likely if Casey fails to post a 

Given the subjectivity inherent in evaluating some of these questions, I will be betting in neither and any resolution outcomes are up to my sole discretion. (That said, if you have good-faith advice, I'd be happy to hear it, especially about resolving to "probability" because I don't have much experience doing that. )

Something important to note about this market's differences from the numerical one is that any of these items could resolve 

If I am extremely confident in resolving I will do so immediately and without warning, but if there is significant uncertainty I will poll the comment section below. I may resolve any individual item 24hrs+ 

 I post the poll--I want to allow for those who aren't on Manifold 24/7 to have a chance to voice their opinion--but also resolve quickly enough so that (hopefully) 99% of bettors are satisfied with my management of this market. As such, I'll put an upper limit of one week after poll posting to make a firm decision as to "Yes" "No" "N/A" "Prob" or "Decision Postponed (Awaiting Further Reporting)". The only situation in which any will resolve "N/A" is if it becomes clear after the fact that something was inherently flawed in the wording/intent/factuality of the prediction and therefore a rational prediction couldn't possibly have been made (or the prediction no longer makes sense for some reason). 

 are responsible for understanding and agreeing to 

of the resolution criteria linked below and listed above. If you have any general questions about the Platformer 2024 Predictions, please post them 

 so that we can have a centralized location to discuss (any queries specific to this market can, of course, be left in the comments below).

Please click attached to read how I plan to resolve both 2024 Platformer Predictions markets:

Thank you for reading, thank you for betting, and may the odds be ever in your favor!! 🎲🎲