Will Australia win The Ashes Boxing Day Test?

Question

Resolution criteria

The Boxing Day Test runs December 26-30 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. The market resolves YES if Australia wins the match (either by runs or wickets). It resolves NO if England wins or the match is drawn. Resolution will be determined by the official match result published on Cricket Australia or the ICC website.

Background

Australia has already retained the Ashes after taking a 3-0 lead in the series, so this is a dead-rubber match. Australia has won 68 of 117 Test matches at the MCG and lost just 32, with only four losses this century. Australia's overall win record in Boxing Day Tests stands at 61%. England's most recent Boxing Day Test win came in 2010/11 by an innings and 157 runs.

Considerations

Pat Cummins is out for the rest of the series to manage his workloads, and Nathan Lyon is sidelined after tearing his right hamstring in Adelaide. Steve Smith will captain the side. England have lost four Tests in a row and won only one of their past seven.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Dec 27, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.