Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Republican primary for president?

Question

Resolves Yes to whoever finishes 1st or 2nd in a Republican primary for a STATE. Non states like DC, Guam and the US Virgin Islands don’t count as states.

This is based on who receives the most votes in the state, delegates don’t count.

Must get over 5% to count. If someone wins 98% and a write candidate gets 0.4% in 2nd, doesn’t count.  A write in candidate getting 2nd with 5.1% would be enough for resolving yes.

If a state cancels a primary, we will ignore that state.

If Uncommitted/none of these candidates finishes 1st or 2nd in a state, only 1 person is eligible to receive a YES resolution from that state.

Comment below if you want an answer added, or need clarification about something.

No manifold ai updates

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, J D Vance, followed by Marco Rubio and Donald J Trump (45th&47th President of USA) are most likely. See the market for live updates (67 traders, as of Mar 11, 2026).