2026 a nightmare year for Trump?

Question

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from VoteHub, U.S. House of Representatives, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Resolves the same as Kalshi:

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpbearcasecombo/trumps-year-bear-nightmare-case/kxtrumpbearcasecombo-27dec

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 30% chance (25 traders, as of Mar 10, 2026).