2026 a dream year for trump?

Question

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from VoteHub, U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Resolves the same as Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpbullcasecombo/trumps-year-bull-dream-case/kxtrumpbullcasecombo-27dec

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (17 traders, as of Oct 3, 2026).