If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of = 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Question

Clarifications:

If there are multiple events where an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by end of 2027, the market will resolve to the AI company responsible for the first such event.

If no AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by end of 2027, this market will resolve to N/A (not to a "no event" option).

The market is not limited to LLMs only. Other AI companies such as Anduril or Palantir are also eligible for resolution.

Responsibility determination involves judgment calls by the creator.

Chinese AI labs such as Baidu, Tencent, and Moonshot are eligible for resolution as potential AI companies that could be held responsible.

Readers can also find the unconditional question here: <https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/if-an-ai-system-is-causes-the-death>

Update 2026-01-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ongoing processes that slowly accumulate casualties (such as AI systems used by health insurance companies to deny care) do not meet the creator's threshold for this market's resolution criteria.

Update 2026-01-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Discrete events are not required for resolution. The market can resolve based on consensus from academic studies or investigative journalism showing cumulative deaths (e.g., a spike in suicides correlated with AI use) attributable to AI, even if not from a single discrete event.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Palantir, followed by OpenAI and xAI are most likely. See the market for live updates (85 traders, as of Apr 3, 2026).