Will Tom Cruise be making Mission Impossible movies in his eighties?

Question

Tom Cruise says he wants to be making Mission Impossible movies when he is eighty. Will he do that?

Resolves YES if a Mission Impossible film is released between July 3rd 2042 (TC's 80th birthday) and July 3rd 2052 starring actual Tom Cruise and not a CGI recreation.

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/tom-cruise-mission-impossible-movies-80-years-old-1235661624/

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 27% chance (28 traders, as of Feb 3, 2026).