1) Significant Narrowing: ΔGap% is less than -5%

'-5':8 '1':1 'less':6 'narrow':3 'signific':2 'δgap':4

2) Moderate Narrowing: ΔGap% is between -2% and -5%

'-2':7 '-5':9 '2':1 'moder':2 'narrow':3 'δgap':4

3) No Significant Change: ΔGap% is between -2% and +2%

'+2':10 '-2':8 '3':1 'chang':4 'signific':3 'δgap':5

4) Moderate Widening: ΔGap% is between +2% and +5%

'+2':7 '+5':9 '4':1 'moder':2 'widen':3 'δgap':4

5) Significant Widening: ΔGap% is more than +5%

'+5':8 '5':1 'signific':2 'widen':3 'δgap':4

The aim of this market is to forecast if, and how, the polling gap between the Labour and Conservative parties shifts as we approach the 2024 UK General Election. Using data from 

, we’re starting with a gap of 20% - Labour at 44%, Conservatives at 24% as of 6th March.

	•	Resolution Date: The market resolves six weeks after the spring budget statement.

	•	Data Source: Politico UK Poll of Polls - National parliament voting intention (smooth lines)

	•	Calculation: We’ll compare the gap one week before the election to our baseline. The change in percentage points (ΔGap%) will determine the resolution.

	•	If Labour polls at 50% and Conservatives at 20%, the gap is 30%. That’s a 10% increase, resolving as “Significant Widening”.

	•	If Labour polls at 35% and Conservatives at 30%, the gap is 5%. That’s a 15% decrease, resolving as “Significant Narrowing”.