Will I still be using a smartphone in a decade?

Question

I’ve been using smartphones for about sixteen years now. I use one every day for several hours. But times change and I love new tech. At market close, will I still be daily driving a smartphone of some kind?

There’s obviously a lot of vagueness around what might come next, so here’s a woolly definition of a smartphone that my future devices will be judged against:

a discrete device

Fits in my pocket

Fulfills personal compute tasks

Things that would not be a smartphone:

any implanted device that fulfills the same functions as a smartphone

Compute installed in e.g. the structures I live and work in

Smart Watch

Smart glasses

A drone that follows me round

Brain-computer interface

Things that might be a smartphone:

a tablet computer that can still fit in my pocket

An implant that requires me to make the “call me” hand gesture to make calls.

As this is something I will presumably have some sway over, I will not bet on this.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 90% chance (28 traders, as of Aug 11, 2026).