registered with the Electoral Commission.

the 2nd most MPs in the House of Commons.

split into multiple electorally-successful parties since 2024.

won >0 General Elections in the past decade.

polled above 40% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

polled above 30% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

polled above 20% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

more MPs in Wales than any other party (N/A if Wales is independent)

more MPs in Scotland than any other party (N/A if Scotland is independent)

won the previous London Mayoral election 

been in government for more than a decade (first elected into power prior to 2030 and remaining in power by 01/01/2040)

This market attempts to quantify “how doomed is the Labour Party?” Please add additional statements if you feel they’re in the broad spirit of that question. If you do add statements, please add them such that they complete the sentence “In 2040, the UK Labour Party has/is …”. Statements that do not follow that pattern may be resolved N/A without warning. If you need to clarify, please do so in the comments.

Each statement resolves to its’ validity as-at market close date on 31st December 2040 if it cannot resolve before.

Clarifications / minutiae for statements: