In 2040, the UK Labour Party has/is … [complete the sentence]

Question

This market attempts to quantify “how doomed is the Labour Party?” Please add additional statements if you feel they’re in the broad spirit of that question. If you do add statements, please add them such that they complete the sentence “In 2040, the UK Labour Party has/is …”. Statements that do not follow that pattern may be resolved N/A without warning. If you need to clarify, please do so in the comments.

Each statement resolves to its’ validity as-at market close date on 31st December 2040 if it cannot resolve before.

Clarifications / minutiae for statements:

registered with the Electoral Commission

The UK EC or any successor organisation.

If political parties do not require registration in 2040 then resolves NO.

If the existing Labour Party registration lapses then resolves NO even if a successor later registers a party with the same name.

Exclusion: if this seems to be purely an admin error and a party that is clearly substantially the same re-registers before the next general election then this would not cause a NO resolution.

split into multiple electorally-successful parties since 2024.

Split: at least 3 sitting Labour MPs have joined another party, such that they represent >= 50% of the recipient party’s sitting MPs.

Electorally-successful: party goes on to win >0 seats at the first General Election following the split, and <50% of “splitter” former Labour MPs lost their seats at that GE.

Multiple: after any split, >1 of the resulting parties (including any remaining Labour Party) meet the “electorally successful” criteria.

Spirit of the law: if every MP abandons the Labour Party for another party and they continue to win elections, that shouldn’t count a split but rather a politicised re-branding.

BPC-member poll in the past year:

British Polling Council or successor org.

If no BPC or successor org exists, any poll can count subject a one-week Manifold poll of “Is $POLLSTER an open, transparent and generally accurate provider of UK Political Polling?” Having a majority of YES responses.

“In the past year” = published between 1st Jan 2040 and 31st Dec 2040 with poll responses gathered at least partially in the same period.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, > 0 MPs in the House of Commons., followed by polled above 20% in a BPC-member poll in the past year. and won >0 General Elections in the past decade. are most likely. See the market for live updates (13 traders, as of Aug 3, 2024).