registered with the Electoral Commission.

the 2nd most MPs in the House of Commons.

split into multiple electorally-successful parties since 2024.

won >0 General Elections in the past decade.

polled above 40% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

polled above 30% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

polled above 20% in a BPC-member poll in the past year.

A lot has been made of how the Conservative Party struggles with youth recruitment and getting the young to vote for them. So the question is, has the Conservative Party lost those votes forever, and is it now destined to dwindle into obscurity? Or should its capacity to reinvent itself not be in doubt?

This market attempts to quantify “how doomed is the Conservative Party?” Please add additional statements if you feel they’re in the broad spirit of that question. If you do add statements, please add them such that they complete the sentence “In 2040, the UK Conservative and Unionist Party has/is …”. Statements that do not follow that pattern may be resolved N/A without warning. If you need to clarify, please do so in the comments.

Each statement resolves to its’ validity as-at market close date on 31st December 2040 if it cannot resolve before.

Clarifications / minutiae for statements: