How long will alien civilisations broadcast their existence into space?

Question

This market will be used to calculate L for the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation project. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation).

This market is intended to not resolve and functions as a stock ticker tracking the current scientific consensus. It will close intermittently to allow for easy tracking of project and reopen once recordings are taken. If a solid scientific consensus is held over a significant period of time (multiple decades) then it may resolve to that consensus.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 10,000 to 100,000 years, followed by 1,000 to 10,000 years and 100 to 1,000 years are most likely. See the market for live updates (26 traders, as of Apr 23, 2026).