Conditional on Labour winning the next UK Election, will they recover £1B of fraudulent COVID loans?

Question

The Labour Party have announced that they will set up a COVID Corruption Commission with the aim of recovering up to £7 billion in fraudulent COVID loans. Will they successfully recover even 1/7th of that?  https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/08/covid-corruption-commissioner-recoup-lost-billions-labour

[link preview]Resolves YES if UK.GOV spokespeople confirm that they have successfully recovered one billion pounds or more by market close.

Resolves N/A if Labour do not win the next general election.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 10% chance (11 traders, as of Feb 26, 2025).