Will Israel be destroyed before 2040, as predicted by Khamenei?

Question

In 2015 Khamenei predicted the "Zionist regime" will be gone in 25 years. https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/641520641724780544

In 2017 Iran started a countdown clock for August 5, 2040 if I have the numbers right: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-al-quds-day-protest-clock-president-hassan-rouhani-a7806056.html

In case of a one-state solution, I would consider it to resolve YES, if that state doesn't have special provisions for Jewish people being able to immigrate (in which case I think it would no longer be Zionist). Any two-state solution would be NO. I consider the confederation model (https://www.2s1h.org/en) that still has a Jewish right of return for the Israel side to still be close enough to a two-state solution and would resolve NO.

If the Iran regime moves the countdown clock further into the future, I would consider that to resolve NO (if I have to fix the date because I mis-added, or the 2017 article was wrong, that's fine though).

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (8 traders, as of Mar 25, 2026).