Will David Chalmers publicly endorse physicalism about consciousness by 2030?

Question

The Australian philosopher David Chalmers is well-known for his arguments against physicalism, or reductive materialist accounts of consciousness according to which all facts about consciousness fit into a completely physical account of the world. His view (at least in his classic, The Conscious Mind) is called 'naturalistic dualism', according to which consciousness, while part of the natural world and so compatible with a scientific worldview, is not reducible to physical properties.

Resolution criteria

• If Chalmers explicitly claims he now holds a physicalist view of consciousness, whether in a publication (peer reviewed or not, article, commentary or blog) or in an interview, this market resolves YES.

• If by 2030 Chalmers has not explicitly so endorsed physicalism, or still explicitly argues for a view that is logically inconsistent with physicalism, it resolves NO.

I will continue clarifying criteria as questions arise.

I will not trade in this market.

2025 version

(https://manifold.markets/embed/NicoDelon/will-david-chalmers-publicly-endors-bd6e7454b5ca)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 22% chance (7 traders, as of Dec 14, 2024).