Who will be the next big Sam on Manifold?

Question

Resolves to any public person whose first name is Sam, Samuel or Sammy and who is the main subject of at least one market with strictly more than 999 unique traders by close date. Resolves to whoever meets the condition first.

Will not resolve to Sam Altman or Sam Bankman-Fried. Markets made before this one do not count.

A public person is anyone who meets at least one of the following conditions:

has an active, stable Wikipedia page

has at least 100,000 followers on one of several social media websites (X, Instagram, Threads, LinkedIn)

holds or has held a public office

has a h-index of at least 30

has won a Nobel Prize

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, No one by close date, followed by Samuel Alito and Sam Harris are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of Jul 9, 2026).