Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Question

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic officially announce and complete the relocation of their headquarters from the UK or the US to another country before the end of 2026. The relocation must be officially recognized and reported by reputable sources such as the company's official website, press releases, or mainstream news outlets.

The term "de-domicile" or "relocate" in this context refers to the act of moving the primary legal and official headquarters of the company, not just opening an additional office or subsidiary in another country. If such a relocation is announced but not completed before the end of 2026, the market will resolve to "No".

The market will also resolve to "No" if a relocation is announced and completed after the expiry date of December 31, 2026. In the event of a dispute over whether a location qualifies as a company's headquarters, the most recent documentation submitted to relevant business registration bodies in the current and proposed new jurisdiction will be used to determine the resolution.

Please note that if any of the three companies (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic) relocate their headquarters from the UK or US to another country before the end of 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes". If none of the companies relocate their headquarters before the end of 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 7% chance (18 traders, as of Apr 12, 2026).