Neural Nets will have human-level situational awareness by the end of 2025.

Question

Set criteria:

Understand that they're NNs, how their actions interface with the world.

Can explain the likely consequences of their actions

Inspired by tweet thread:

[image]Link: https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568775018975232?s=20

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 59% chance (36 traders, as of Dec 30, 2025).