Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs than humans by the end of 2025, including novel theorems

Question

Set criteria:

Draft criteria:

I think we'll know this one when we see it, but can we do better?

If we don't add more criteria, then this will be resolved either by Richard Ngo making a public statement or community concensus. If we add more criteria, this will resolve according to those criteria.

Inspired by tweet thread (note I've put them all as "Neural Nets will" so that they are all framed the same):

[image][image]Link: https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568776495353860?s=20

May 2, 12:59pm: Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs, including novel theorems by the end of 2025 → Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs than humans by the end of 2025, including novel theorems

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 3% chance (31 traders, as of Nov 28, 2025).