Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025

Question

Set criteria:

Draft criteria:

Must be employable at a 90th percentile level at executing palns

Some must be employed at these tasks

If we don't add more criteria, then this will be resolved either by Richard Ngo making a public statement or community concensus. If we add more criteria, this will resolve according to those criteria.

Inspired by tweet thread (note I've put them all as "Neural Nets will" so that they are all framed the same):

[image][image]Link: https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568776495353860?s=20

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Oct 15, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.