At least 1 G7 Country will have been under a fascist authoritarian regime for at least 6 months by 2035

Question

The G7 countries  are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States and are currently all democracies.

A fascist authoritarian regime is (suggestions, open to change):

Non-democratic

Non-communist

A dictator, oligarchs or military leaders

Pushes for national power and identity

The market is aimed at predicting whether at least one G7 country will have been under a fascist authoritarian regime for a minimum of six months by the year 2035. The market will close on December 31, 2034, allowing participants to make predictions up until this date. The resolution of the market will occur after December 31, 2035, and will be based on credible sources or confirmations that indicate a G7 country has been under a fascist autocracy for at least six months within the defined timeframe. In the absence of such confirmation, the market will resolve to "no". Changes to the political landscape that occur after the conclusion of 2035 will not be considered in the resolution of this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 17% chance (11 traders, as of Feb 22, 2026).