Will humanity wipe out superintelligent AI before 2040?

Question

This market resolves YES if it is confirmed that humanity destroyed all superintelligent AI before 2040. This market resolves NO if it is not confirmed that humanity has destroyed all superintelligent AI before 2040. This market resolves NO if humanity has not yet created a superintelligent AI before 2040.

This question was inspired by the Butlerian Jihad.

I use the definition from GamblingGandalf's market:

Superintelligent AI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.

I will not bet on this market due to the vagueness of this definition.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 17% chance (14 traders, as of Jun 29, 2026).