What an actually pessimistic containment strategy looks like

'actual':3 'contain':5 'like':8 'look':7 'pessimist':4 'strategi':6

Luck based medicine: my resentful story of becoming a medical miracle

'base':2 'becom':8 'luck':1 'medic':10 'medicin':3 'miracl':11 'resent':5 'stori':6

'counter':2 'counter-thes':1 'sleep':5 'these':3

(My understanding of) What Everyone in Technical Alignment is Doing and Why

'align':8 'everyon':5 'technic':7 'understand':2

It Looks Like You're Trying To Take Over The World

'like':3 'look':2 're':5 'take':8 'tri':6 'world':11

'fatherhood':6 'month':4 'reflect':1 'six':3

DeepMind alignment team opinions on AGI ruin arguments

'agi':6 'align':2 'argument':8 'deepmind':1 'opinion':4 'ruin':7 'team':3

A Mechanistic Interpretability Analysis of Grokking

'analysi':4 'grokk':6 'interpret':3 'mechanist':2

Counterarguments to the basic AI x-risk case

'ai':5 'basic':4 'case':9 'counterargu':1 'risk':8 'x':7 'x-risk':6

'2':5 'cannot':8 'dall':3 'dall-':2 'e':4

Staring Into the Abyss As a Core Life Skill

'abyss':4 'core':7 'life':8 'skill':9 'stare':1

What should you change in response to an "emergency"? And AI risk

'ai':11 'chang':4 'emerg':9 'respons':6 'risk':12

Causal Scrubbing: a method for rigorously testing interpretability hypotheses

'causal':1 'hypothes':9 'interpret':8 'method':4 'rigor':6 'scrub':2 'test':7

On how various plans miss the hard bits of the alignment challenge

'align':11 'bit':8 'challeng':12 'hard':7 'miss':5 'plan':4 'various':3

MIRI announces new "Death With Dignity" strategy

'announc':2 'death':4 'digniti':6 'miri':1 'new':3 'strategi':7

Six Dimensions of Operational Adequacy in AGI Projects

'adequaci':5 'agi':7 'dimens':2 'oper':4 'project':8 'six':1

Human values & biases are inaccessible to the genome

'bias':3 'genom':8 'human':1 'inaccess':5 'valu':2

 of one of the previous years where people write reviews of old posts and vote on which ones stood the test of time. Starting sometime in December 2023, there should be a review of posts from 2022. In that review, which five posts will be voted the best (by 1000+ karma users*)?

If the format is the same as last year, then after final voting ends, I will check the review voting page, sort by "Final Vote Total (1000+ karma users)", and choose the first five posts listed. (

 does that for last year's review.) I will resolve the options for those posts to YES and all other options to NO.

If the format is sufficiently different that the above method doesn't work, I will try to find another reasonable method of determining the top 5. If the review doesn't have voting, or if the review doesn't happen, every option resolves N/A. 

Edit: the format appears to be the same as last year.

 shows posts eligible for a 2022 review. I've started this market with the top 20 posts by karma, but feel free to add eligible posts that you think might win. Last year one of the top 5 posts in the review was only #43 in the karma ranking.

*I'm limiting it to the 1000+ karma user vote to limit the potential for bettors on this market to mess with the results of the review. If you are a 1000+ karma user, pretty please don't change your votes just to win mana.