Will we ever see a failed Starship/Booster catch attempt on the chopsticks? (Before 2030)

Question

For an attempt to count it has to make contact with the chopsticks, the launch mount, or the tower.

Failure means exploding, falling down, or being supported by a grid fin or a flap instead of the designated hardpoints.

This market resolves No if this doesn't happen before 2030.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 67% chance (26 traders, as of Jan 23, 2025).