Will Starship Ship 40 be recovered to shore?

Question

It's fine if it's in many pieces. If it gets scuttled or sinks for other reasons this resolves No.

If only parts are recovered to shore, let's say that a major part is enough. I'm imagining either the full nosecone, or the full ship without the nosecone. Just the engine section is not enough. (I'm open to further resolution suggestions!)

I'm not betting in this market since it can come down to a bit of a judgement question, if the resolution is ambiguous.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 16% chance (8 traders, as of Jul 28, 2026).