How many games will Lionel Messi play at the 2026 World Cup

Question

The 2026 World Cup will feature an expanded format with 48 teams (up from 32), potentially affecting the number of matches teams play throughout the tournament.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the number of games Lionel Messi plays for Argentina at the 2026 FIFA World Cup:

0: Resolves YES if Messi does not play in any matches at the 2026 World Cup (either because he retires from international football, is not selected for the squad, is injured, or Argentina fails to qualify).

1-2: Resolves YES if Messi plays in at least 1 but no more than 2 matches at the 2026 World Cup.

3-5: Resolves YES if Messi plays in at least 3 but no more than 5 matches at the 2026 World Cup.

6+: Resolves YES if Messi plays in 6 or more matches at the 2026 World Cup.

A player is considered to have "played" in a match if they appear on the field at any point during the match, including as a substitute. If Messi is named in the squad but doesn't play in any matches, this counts as 0 games. If Messi is on the bench but doesn’t play on the field, this counts as 0 games. If the 2026 World Cup is canceled or postponed beyond 2026, this market will resolve N/A.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 3-5, followed by 6+ and 0 are most likely. See the market for live updates (6 traders, as of Mar 8, 2026).