How long will “indefinite extension” US x Iran ceasefire hold?

Question

[image]Counting from the time of this post as starting time, 4/21 1:09 pst. If the war does not restart by 4/23 1:09 PST then more than 2 days resolved YES

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, More than 8 days, followed by More than 9 days and More than 10 days are most likely. See the market for live updates (36 traders, as of Apr 29, 2026).