Will Elon Musk/X prevail in a lawsuit against Media Matters?

Question

Elon Musk has stated that X Corp (formerly Twitter) will be filing a "thermonuclear lawsuit" against Media Matters on Monday, November 20th.

[image]This question will resolve as follows:

If the parties settle out of court with Media Matters making a substantial payment (>$1 million) to Musk/X, it resolves as YES.

In the case of a smaller settlement (e.g. retraction/apology without payment), I will resolve as N/A; for the purposes of this question, I don't consider Media Matters caving to the threat of a lawsuit to count as Musk/X prevailing in court, unless it comes with a substantial settlement.

If there is no lawsuit filed by 2024-02-29, or if Musk/X clearly state before that date that they will not be filing a suit, it resolves as NO.

If the case goes to court, the question resolves at the close of the lawsuit, based on who wins.

I will not participate in this market.

Updated 2023-12-12: Pushed out the close date to EOY 2024 since the lawsuit has actually been filed now.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 13% chance (60 traders, as of Oct 1, 2026).