It will release between May and October 2024

Its knowledge cutoff will be in or before April 2024

Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in May 2024

Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in June 2024

Its knowledge cutoff will be in or later than July 2024

Output tokens will be cheaper than GPT-4 Turbo(as of March 12, 2024)

OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo

It will have a different logo color from green, black, or purple(based on resolution of https://manifold.markets/MiraBot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=TWlyYUJvdA)

It will be trending on Twitter the day of release. A name like "GPT", "OpenAI", "GPT-5" could all count. Checked from a clean account.

It will be able to translate a page of manga (JP image -> EN text)

Will be claimed to be AGI by the New York times up to 3 months after release.

Will be claimed to be AGI by OpenAI up to 3 months after release.

Will be claimed to be AGI by Wikipedia up to 3 months after release.

It will use a new architecture meaningfully different from GPT-4

There will be credible reporting that it is or was "excessively horny" either before or up to three months after release 

It will be ranked the highest model on the LMSys Chatbot Arena, and not overtaken by another model, 3 months after the release date.

It will be trained on reasoning traces from o1/o3 type models

It will be able to pass jim's "agents benchmark"

"GPT-5" refers to a model named or presented as "GPT-5"(or a variation). This can be the model id, or a description like "the fifth generation of the GPT series". Benchmarks and features are not considered: Only how the model is presented by OpenAI.

Add your own options. One who creates an option is responsible for clarifying follow-up questions. 

 may interpret them if not, or resolve the option NA.

If GPT-5 is not released by end of 2025 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.

If GPT-5 is released, moderators should close this market for trading immediately.

Resolution tags. Place at the beginning of an option to change how it resolves.

"It will use a new architecture meaningfully different from GPT-4"

. Despite uncertainty about the technical architecture (router system, MoE rumors, 4o base continuation), OpenAI is presenting GPT-5 differently from GPT-4 in their official announcement, which is sufficient per the market's rule that "Benchmarks and features are not considered: Only how the model is presented by OpenAI."

"OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo"

chart or reported metrics from an OpenAI tool or site

 showing speed comparison. The model comparison page shows equal speed symbols (3 for both), which is insufficient. Non-OpenAI claims and observed performance don't count. Will resolve 

 unless OpenAI provides explicit speed comparison metrics.