It will release between May and October 2024

Its knowledge cutoff will be in or before April 2024

'2024':10 'april':9 'cutoff':3 'knowledg':2

Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in May 2024

'2024':10 'cutoff':3 'day':7 'knowledg':2 'may':9

Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in June 2024

'2024':10 'cutoff':3 'day':7 'june':9 'knowledg':2

Its knowledge cutoff will be in or later than July 2024

'2024':11 'cutoff':3 'juli':10 'knowledg':2 'later':8

'199.5':6 'context':8 'k':7 'least':5 'support':3

'499.5':6 'context':8 'k':7 'least':5 'support':3

'999.5':6 'context':8 'k':7 'least':5 'support':3

Output tokens will be cheaper than GPT-4 Turbo(as of March 12, 2024)

'-4':8 '12':13 '2024':14 'cheaper':5 'gpt':7 'march':12 'output':1 'token':2 'turbo':9

OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo

'-4':8 'claim':3 'faster':5 'gpt':7 'openai':1 'turbo':9

It will have a different logo color from green, black, or purple(based on resolution of https://manifold.markets/MiraBot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=TWlyYUJvdA)

'/mirabot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=twlyyujvda)':19 'base':13 'black':10 'color':7 'differ':5 'green':9 'logo':6 'manifold.markets':18 'manifold.markets/mirabot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=twlyyujvda)':17 'purpl':12 'resolut':15

It will be trending on Twitter the day of release. A name like "GPT", "OpenAI", "GPT-5" could all count. Checked from a clean account.

'-5':17 'account':25 'check':21 'clean':24 'could':18 'count':20 'day':8 'gpt':14,16 'like':13 'name':12 'openai':15 'releas':10 'trend':4 'twitter':6

It will be able to translate a page of manga (JP image -> EN text)

'abl':4 'en':13 'imag':12 'jp':11 'manga':10 'page':8 'text':14 'translat':6

Will be claimed to be AGI by the New York times up to 3 months after release.

'3':14 'agi':6 'claim':3 'month':15 'new':9 'releas':17 'time':11 'york':10

Will be claimed to be AGI by OpenAI up to 3 months after release.

'3':11 'agi':6 'claim':3 'month':12 'openai':8 'releas':14

Will be claimed to be AGI by Wikipedia up to 3 months after release.

'3':11 'agi':6 'claim':3 'month':12 'releas':14 'wikipedia':8

It will use a new architecture meaningfully different from GPT-4

'-4':11 'architectur':6 'differ':8 'gpt':10 'meaning':7 'new':5 'use':3

There will be credible reporting that it is or was "excessively horny" either before or up to three months after release 

'credibl':4 'either':13 'excess':11 'horni':12 'month':19 'releas':21 'report':5 'three':18

Add your own options. One who creates an option is responsible for clarifying follow-up questions. 

 may interpret them if not, or resolve the option NA.

If GPT-5 is not released by end of 2025 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.

If GPT-5 is released, moderators should close this market for trading immediately.

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