It will release between May and October 2024

Its knowledge cutoff will be in or before April 2024

'2024':10 'april':9 'cutoff':3 'knowledg':2

Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in May 2024

'2024':10 'cutoff':3 'day':7 'knowledg':2 'may':9

Its knowledge cutoff will be any day in June 2024

'2024':10 'cutoff':3 'day':7 'june':9 'knowledg':2

Its knowledge cutoff will be in or later than July 2024

'2024':11 'cutoff':3 'juli':10 'knowledg':2 'later':8

'199.5':6 'context':8 'k':7 'least':5 'support':3

'499.5':6 'context':8 'k':7 'least':5 'support':3

'999.5':6 'context':8 'k':7 'least':5 'support':3

OpenAI will claim it faster than GPT-4 Turbo

'-4':8 'claim':3 'faster':5 'gpt':7 'openai':1 'turbo':9

It will have a different logo color from green, black, or purple(based on resolution of https://manifold.markets/MiraBot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=TWlyYUJvdA)

'/mirabot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=twlyyujvda)':19 'base':13 'black':10 'color':7 'differ':5 'green':9 'logo':6 'manifold.markets':18 'manifold.markets/mirabot/what-color-will-the-next-openai-llm?r=twlyyujvda)':17 'purpl':12 'resolut':15

It will be trending on Twitter the day of release. A name like "GPT", "OpenAI", "GPT-4.5" could all count. Checked from a clean account.

'-4.5':17 'account':25 'check':21 'clean':24 'could':18 'count':20 'day':8 'gpt':14,16 'like':13 'name':12 'openai':15 'releas':10 'trend':4 'twitter':6

It will be considered AGI by the New York times

'agi':5 'consid':4 'new':8 'time':10 'york':9

It will be considered AGI by Wikipedia 3 months after release (can happen before but the check should be made at 3 months)

'3':8,22 'agi':5 'check':17 'consid':4 'happen':13 'made':20 'month':9,23 'releas':11 'wikipedia':7

It will sota at the time of release (highest score on lmsys arena)

'arena':13 'highest':9 'lmsys':12 'releas':8 'score':10 'sota':3 'time':6

It will start out at the #1 spot on the HuggingFace leaderboard when it is added

'1':7 'ad':16 'huggingfac':11 'leaderboard':12 'spot':8 'start':3

Ambiguous(2024): GPT-4.5 will be released before GPT-5

'-4.5':4 '-5':10 '2024':2 'ambigu':1 'gpt':3,9 'releas':7

Conditional(2024): It will be trending on Twitter the day of release. (N/A if no release)

'2024':2 'condit':1 'day':10 'n/a':13 'releas':12,16 'trend':6 'twitter':8

'28':6 'day':8 'june':5 'releas':3 'tau':7

Variations like "GPT-4.5", "GPT-4.5 Turbo", "GPT-4 Turbo 2.0" all count. Must use separate branding but remain in the GPT-4 family: A model id update to "GPT-4 Turbo" or "GPT-4" wouldn't count. GPT-5 won't count either.

Add your own options. One who creates an option is responsible for clarifying follow-up questions. 

 may interpret them if not, or resolve the option NA.

If GPT-4.5 is not released in 2024 or insufficient information is presented, options resolve NO by default unless specified to resolve differently.

If GPT-4.5 is released, moderators should close this market for trading immediately.

Resolution tags. Place at the beginning of an option to change how it resolves.