Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)

Question

This market predicts whether OpenAI, in collaboration with at least one of the listed AI alignment organizations, will announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment or safety techniques by December 31, 2024.

Resolves YES if:

OpenAI and at least one of the listed AI alignment organizations officially announce or confirm a major breakthrough in AI alignment or safety techniques on or before December 31, 2024.

Resolves 50% if:

The best candidate research announcement by OpenAI is heavily contested in this market as a breakthrough, any polls conducted in this market to decide are also disputed, and a third-party judge decides it's too uncertain to call YES or NO.

Resolves NO if:

No such announcement is made by December 31, 2024.

Resolves as NA if:

OpenAI ceases to exist, or the listed AI alignment organizations merge, dissolve, or undergo significant restructuring, rendering the original intent of the market unclear or irrelevant.

Definitions:

Major breakthrough refers to a significant, novel, and publicly disclosed discovery, development, or advance in AI alignment or safety techniques that demonstrates measurable progress towards addressing AI alignment or safety concerns. The market creator will assess the candidates for a breakthrough based on OpenAI's Research Index(or submissions posted in the comments) using their own judgment, citation counts, comments from AI alignment influencers, media coverage, and product usage. If the judgment is disputed within one week, a poll will be conducted to determine if the paper in question is a "major breakthrough". If the polls appear to be manipulated, an unbiased alignment researcher will make the final decision.

AI alignment organizations refers to Anthropic, Redwood Research, Alignment Research Center, Center for Human Compatible AI, Machine Intelligence Research Institute, or Conjecture. Additional examples may be added.

Description can be freely adjusted within one week after market creation. After that, any disputes will be resolved via poll.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 2, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.