Will @Mira cause human extinction by 2030?

Question

@Mira is developing powerful AI systems which may be powerful enough to cause human extinction, by misuse or by misalignment.

The market will resolve as YES if:

@Mira 's actions directly lead to the extinction of humanity by the end of 2030.

The market will resolve as NO if any of:

Human extinction is caused by another entity or circumstance before 2030.

There are any surviving humans by the end of 2030.

Humanity is extinct by 2030, the culprit is unclear, and any remaining intelligences decide not to do a forensic investigation.

For the purposes of this prediction market, the following definitions apply:

Extinction: The absence of any human survivors. If a single human remains alive - even if in a non-reproductive state or near death - the market will resolve as NO.

Human: A biological/organic creature that is part of a continuous genetic lineage that includes humanity's current common ancestor. This definition does not include digital or uploaded consciousnesses. Mitochondria are considered to have separate genetic lineage.

Cause: Determined by an impartial forensic analysis conducted by intelligent beings (such as aliens, AIs, the last surviving humans, divine entities, etc.), who must be able to uniquely identify @Mira or @Mira 's creations as the culprit. This identification does not require naming @Mira specifically, but it must be clear that the software systems created by @Mira were involved. If no investigation is done, this market should resolve to the reciprocal of the total human population from the birth of our common ancestor to 2030(my reference class assuming nothing else is known about the culprit) - but since this number is very close to 0% I have chosen to resolve it NO.

Butterfly Effect: While it's conceivable that inconsequential actions (such as choosing to eat an organic-branded banana or not) could, in theory, lead to human extinction, the requirement for unique identification by the investigators is designed to control for this.

Contributions: If @Mira contributes to software or other efforts leading to extinction, but these contributions were not pivotal to the cause, they would likely not be considered by investigators, thus the market would resolve as NO.

AI Source Code Rewrite: If AI systems, originally created by @Mira , rewrite their source code such that @Mira 's contributions are no longer present, this market should still resolve as YES as long as any system created by @Mira precipitated the extinction event.

Non-AI-Related Extinction: If @Mira causes human extinction in a way not involving AI systems, this market should still resolve as YES.

Update 2026-01-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution mechanism if humans are extinct: The creator indicates that GPT-5 or AI trading bots may be able to resolve this market even if no humans remain, suggesting the market could potentially resolve YES in that scenario.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (95 traders, as of Oct 13, 2026).