If I move to D.C., will I find someone to seriously date within 6 months?

Question

Washington D.C., according to my census bureau data, has the highest [straight female]:[straight male] ratio among educated 20-30 year olds and it is not even close - around 4 women for every 3 men. The ratios for other demographic slices in the 20-30 age bracket are similarly abysmal, ranging from 3:2 to 5:4. I estimate that the base rate of finding a long term partner where I'm living, with current efforts, is somewhere around ~25%. Would it help my prospects to move to D.C.?

Some relevant facts about me:

I'm a 23-year old white male with a BMI of 26 and a measured height of 5'11.

I have had one long term relationship spanning when I was 15-20 years old. I dropped out of college to start a startup at 21 and haven't been in a serious LTR with anyone since.

Dating apps don't work. I've paid for Vidaselect and gotten a photographer and they still largely haven't worked. A small portion of this might be that I was around 30 pounds heavier when I took the photos on my profile, but alas.

I am fairly financially successful for my age.

The company I work for now is fully remote. I have essentially no natural social environment for meeting women.

I am a panda. I will complain restlessly about not having gf for months and then someone will display interest in me and I will say no. I want to date someone nice that I can respect intellectually, that is fairly physically attractive and that I can see myself having aggressively embryo-selected kids with.

This market's six months clock starts after the hypothetical move. For the market on whether or not I will get into an LTR over the next immediate six months without the move:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-i-find-someone-to-date-within) Feel free to also trade in my related nonconditional markets, which I will find and also subsidize and link down below:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-i-enter-into-a-long-term-relat)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MilfordHammerschmidt/will-i-fall-in-love-by-2030)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 42% chance (8 traders, as of Oct 27, 2024).