For which of the Millennium Prize Problems will the Million Dollars be taken ?

Question

https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/

For each market : If the 1 million dollar prize pledged by the Clay Institute of Mathematics for the resolution of the associated problem is taken, then it resolves YES. (Typically : someone solves the problem and accepts the money)

If it’s clearly consensual that it won’t be taken, then it esolves NO. (For example, if the Clay Institute of Mathematics ceases to exist and no money is saved to be awarded later, all remaining problems shall resolve NO ; if someone solves a problem, is awarded the money and refuses it, the corresponding question resolves NO.)

If the money is awarded and redirected (like idk someone gets the prize and asks for it to be given to MIRI), this resolves YES.

In case the resolution is conflictual, I’ll use my judgement, so I won’t bet on this market.

Feel free to ask questions if you'd like to.

Note : Poincaré Conjecture is now solved, and would have been a NO by the standards of this market, since Grigoriy Perelman solved it and refused the money.

Navier-Stokes has its own market :

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Mich/navier-stonks-ie-will-the-prize-for)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, followed by Riemann Hypothesis and Yang-Mills & The Mass Gap are most likely. See the market for live updates (11 traders, as of Sep 10, 2026).