Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?

Question

From https://metaculus.com//questions/15410/jetblue-acquisition-of-spirit-airlines/ On July 28, 2022, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines [announced](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158463/000119312522204208/d319514dex991.htm) that their boards of directors had approved a merger between the two companies through which JetBlue would acquire Spirit for $33.50 a share, at an enterprise value of $7.6 billion, and following the merger would eventually operate as a single airline under the JetBlue name and be the 5th largest airline in the United States. The airlines [planned](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/business/jetblue-spirit-merger.html) to complete the transaction in the first half of 2024. On October 19, 2022 Spirit's shareholders [approved](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498710/000149871022000336/a221019stockholderapprov.htm) the deal. On March 7, 2023, the US Department of Justice [announced](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-block-jetblue-s-proposed-acquisition-spirit) an antitrust lawsuit to block the acquisition on the grounds that it would harm consumers by eliminating an ultra-low-cost carrier, which would result in, according to the DOJ, "raising costs for the flying public and harming cost-conscious fliers most acutely." JetBlue and Spirit [announced](https://investor.jetblue.com/news/news-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Spirit-Will-Continue-to-Advance-Plan-to-Create-Compelling-National-Low-Fare-Challenger-to-the-Dominant-U.S.-Carriers/default.aspx) that they would "vigorously defend" against the DOJ's suit, arguing that the post-merger JetBlue would be a stronger and more competitive airline against the legacy carriers. According to [research](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/done-deal-why-many-large-transactions-fail-to-cross-the-finish-line) by McKinsey, in any given year about 10% of large M&A transactions are cancelled, with larger combinations being more likely to be cancelled. The 2nd most common reason for mergers to be terminated is for regulatory or antitrust concerns. A recent [legal analysis](https://www.law.com/nationallawjournal/2022/11/07/doj-sees-mixed-results-in-litigation-focused-antitrust-strategy/?slreturn=20230209091925) finds the DOJ under the Biden Administration to have a more expansive view of antitrust and a willingness to go to trial even when facing difficult cases. This has resulted in a string of defeats but also recent victories such as blocking the acquisition of Simon & Schuster by Penguin Random House.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 2, 2026 by Manifold Markets prediction market.