Will Magnus Carlsen be the first chess player to achieve a rating of over 2900?

Question

Only applies to his FIDE rating under classical time controls. His live rating is updated continuously on the 2700chess website, and has achieved a peak rating of 2882 twice in both 2014 and 2019.

As it remains an open question as to whether he can achieve this feat under the contemporary environment, this question will close at the end of 2024, and will not attempt to predict when Carlsen might do so.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (18 traders, as of Aug 7, 2024).