Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

Question

Resolves YES if any lab responsible for producing state-of-the-art AI models is seized by the government of the USA or UK. Also resolves YES if >67% of the technical staff of such a lab begin working for the government in a <60 day span.

A SotA model is one that is arguably the best one in the world on some dimension, including vague properties like common sense reasoning. I'll be leaning on the side of things counting, here.

Government grants and contracts do not count. The government must be in a position to directly be able to halt/direct the researcher's/engineer's work by normal managerial control. Similarly, court orders to halt due to legal issues do not count.

Update 2025-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): **• Voluntary transfers (e.g. Elon Musk donating his organization to the government) should be treated similarly to government contracts and do not count as a seizure.

A lab should only be considered as having been nationalized (i.e. a YES resolution) if there is evidence of conflict, falling out, or explicit hostility toward being nationalized (i.e. not a cooperative, voluntary transfer).

This clarification applies to borderline cases like xAI, where close ties with the administration alone are not sufficient to resolve YES.**

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 47% chance (34 traders, as of Feb 23, 2026).