Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Question

On March 11, 2026, ABC News reported that the FBI warned California police departments that Iran aspired to conduct a surprise drone attack against targets on the US West Coast in retaliation for American strikes against Iran. https://abcnews.com/US/fbi-warns-iran-aspired-attack-california-drones-retaliation/story?id=130973820

This market resolves YES if, by March 11, 2027 (11:59 PM ET), at least one attack meeting all of the following conditions has occurred:

The attack took place within the 50 US states or Washington, DC. Attacks on US territories, embassies, military bases abroad, or ships at sea do not count.

The attack involved a physical method capable of causing death — including but not limited to firearms, explosives, edged weapons, vehicles used as weapons, or weaponized drones/autonomous systems. The attack does not need to successfully kill anyone, but the method must be plausibly capable of doing so.

The following do not qualify: pure cyberattacks (even if they disrupt critical infrastructure and lead to death, such as a hospital losing power), economic sabotage, espionage, propaganda operations, or hoaxes/threats without a physical component.

The attack must be attributed to the Iranian government or its direct agents by at least three of the following news organizations: AP, Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, BBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and Fox News. A week must then pass without retractions or revisions from the primary reporting organization.

An attack carried out by a non-state group (e.g., Hezbollah, a militia, or a lone actor) qualifies only if the US government attributes direction or operational support for that specific attack to the Iranian government. General funding relationships or ideological alignment are not sufficient. The attribution must link Iran to the specific plot, not just to the broader organization involved.

Edge cases:

If an attack occurs but attribution remains unclear or disputed as of March 11, 2027, the market will not resolve on that date. It will remain open for up to 6 additional months to allow for official findings. If no formal attribution has been made by September 12, 2027, the market resolves NO.

A plot that is interrupted before any attack is physically carried out (e.g., an arrest before deployment) does not count, even if charges are filed and it's clearly linked to Iran. At least an attempted physical attack must have occurred.

If the western media formally attributes an attack to Iran but Iran denies involvement (as is often typical), the market still resolves YES.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 20% chance (95 traders, as of Apr 23, 2026).