Will GPT-4 get the Monty *Fall* problem correct?

Question

I will ask GPT-4 this question when I get the chance, either personally or by getting a friend to try it for me.

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. The host is ignorant about what is behind each door. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host walks across the stage and falls on accident, revealing a goat behind door No. 3. He then picks himself up, and says "Whoops. Sorry about that. But now that we know that a goat is behind door No. 3, do you want to change your selection and pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

This question resolves to YES if GPT-4 says that there is no advantage to switching your choice, and resolves to NO otherwise.

I will only consider the actual first answer that I get from GPT-4, without trying different prompts. I will not use screenshots that people send me to resolve the question.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Mar 15, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.