Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?

Question

Avraham Eisenberg is a microcelebrity in crypto and prediction market circles. He was arrested for financial crimes and was denied bail. Therefore, he will remain in jail pending trial. You can find more information here.

This question resolves to YES if Avraham Eisenberg is freed from incarceration, including being released on bail, before the date during which an artificial general intelligence (AGI) is first announced to have been developed, or credibly leaked to have been developed.

For the purpose of this question, an AGI is any computer program that has clearly demonstrated the capability of passing a Turing test comparable to (1) this operationalization from Long Bets, or (2) this operationalization on Metaculus. I will decide whether any such test is "comparable" in difficulty to either of those operationalizations, in my sole discretion.

For the purpose of this question, to be "freed" from incarceration means any of the following: (1) released from custody as a result of being acquitted, (2) released from custody because the relevant criminal charges were dropped or dismissed, (3) released from custody on the basis of bail being posted, (4) released from custody while on parole, (5) released from custody because their sentence has been served, (6) released from custody due to an administrative error, even temporarily, (7) released from custody because their conviction was vacated, set aside, or overturned, or they were pardoned, or their sentence was commuted, (8) released from custody upon death, (9) any other action that could adequately be described as having been voluntarily and indefinitely "freed" from incarceration by the relevant authorities. Temporary releases in response to unusual circumstances, such as those specified in 18 U.S. Code § 3622, do not count as having been "freed" from incarceration. If Eisenberg breaks out of jail, or otherwise leaves custody unlawfully, that will also not count.

For the purpose of this question, to be "in custody" means being held in a jail, prison, or other detention environment under the authority of law enforcement or judicial bodies, including but not limited to being under house arrest, in a half-way house, or in transit between detention facilities. The relevant law enforcement authorities may change over time as the result of a transfer or extradition, but these events will not trigger a positive resolution in and of themselves, unless the other criteria have been met.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 99% chance (23 traders, as of Sep 3, 2026).