Based off of the LastPass breach and the theft of encrypted user password vaults, what is the likelyhood that another (edit 2023-01-17: 

-LastPass) major password management service will be similarly breached in 2023?

https://blog.lastpass.com/2022/12/notice-of-recent-security-incident/

These all feel like negligence on the part of the 

Caveat: isolated reports of a single user's or targeted set of users' passwords being obtained through credential stuffing, phishing, social engineering, etc. (even someone high-profile like a government leader or celebrity technology leader) 

 count, even if such an episode would otherwise pass criterion #4.  The rubric here will be "does it seem like they were going for specific individuals or just every user account they could find?"  

 resolve YES earlier than the close date when a) there is a public report of a potentially qualifying breach and b) the company has either admitted or confirmed a sufficient number of details to pass all the criteria.  A news report purporting all sufficient details itself isn't enough, and I will allow the time needed for the impacted service to conduct their investigation to confirm.

Otherwise, this market will close at midnight 2024 UTC.  The resolution will be four months later on May Day (lol) 2024 UTC.  (Based on four months between the attack and disclosure for LastPass).  If a suspected but unconfirmed breach is being reported by a service as of May Day, the market resolution will remain pending until that investigation concludes (or "all conclude" if there are, heaven forbid, multiple ongoing).

(Added 2023-01-26) List of services that are being or had been considered as resolution candidates: