Kirti Joshi has been working on a set of preprints reformulating Mochizuki's Inter-universal Teichmüller Theory (IUT) - a brief intro: 

https://thehighergeometer.wordpress.com/2023/04/19/joshis-quest

https://www.math.arizona.edu/%7Ekirti/joshi-teich-quest.pdf

This market will resolve YES if the programme leads to well accepted new results/mathematical approach. Some examples of what will resolve yes:

A result will be attributed to the programme if a co-author on the result claims it is part of the programme and there are no strong reasons to believe otherwise.

"Accepted" here means that majority of the mathematical community will judge the results as trustworthy and proven beyond reasonable doubt - I will not require a complete capitulation by all critics or a computer-checked proof.

Since the resolution is partially subjective, I will not bet on this market.