Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Question

This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.

This question is answered "No" if there is:

no military conflict between the two parties

a limited military conflict without triggering a major war

On the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction. Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.

"[...] Admiral John Aquilino, says China wants to finish modernising its armed forces by 2027. The timeline is shrinking, he told the Senate in March.

https://www.economist.com/china/2022/09/01/a-weak-china-may-be-more-warlike-than-a-strong-one

The year Davidson sees as the potential time horizon for a Chinese attack, 2027, is the centenary of the People’s Liberation Army. In November 2020, the Chinese Communist party said it wanted to “ensure that the 100-year military building goal is achieved by 2027”, called for faster military modernisation and reiterated the goal of making the Chinese military fit for networked, “intelligentised” warfare. Although those are stock phrases China has used before, the Pentagon calls 2027 a “new milestone”. “If realised, the PLA’s 2027 modernisation goals could provide Beijing with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency,” it said in its annual report on the Chinese military last year. Some analysts doubt Davidson’s date. But one year on from his testimony, government and military officials in both Taipei and Washington say the window from now to 2027 is a genuine threat.

[...]
One person familiar with the administration’s assessment of the threat to Taiwan says there is general agreement that China is aiming to have developed the necessary capabilities to attack by 2027, but argues that is very distinct from the question of intent or action.

https://www.ft.com/content/0850eb67-1700-47c0-9dbf-3395b4e905fd

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 12% chance (597 traders, as of Oct 11, 2026).