Will there be 100 or more homicides in Portland, Oregon in 2023?

Question

This question will resolve as Yes if there are 100 or more homicide offenses from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023 in Portland, Oregon, according to the Portland Police Bureau website. The Portland Police Bureau reports using the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) maintained by the FBI

Background
With significant change in the political landscape at both the state and federal level expected in November 2022, this question seeks to assess what impact changes in administrative policy may have on the safety of the citizens of Portland, Oregon.

According to an article featured in the Oregonian Newspaper, “Portland’s homicide rate jumped 207% from January 2019 through June 2021, the largest increase compared to five comparable cities, Minneapolis, Atlanta, San Francisco, Denver and Nashville, according to a new study”

The referenced study was conducted by the California Partnership for Safe Communities in cooperation with the Portland Police Bureau. It shows a dramatic spike in the number of homicides from 36 in 2019, to 88 in 2021. Regrettably, as of September 2022, the number of homicides in the City of Portland was already at 52 homicides for the time period from January 2022 – July 2022, according to the official statistics from the Portland Police Bureau.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 31, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.