Will Paul Seixas win a grand tour before 2030?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Paul Seixas wins the General Classification (overall victory) of any of the three Grand Tours—the Tour de France, the Giro d'Italia, or the Vuelta a España—prior to January 1, 2030. If he does not win at least one of these races by December 31, 2029, the market will resolve to NO.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 67% chance (7 traders, as of Jul 29, 2026).