Will element 119 be discovered by the end of 2030?

Question

This question will resolve as "Yes" if, by December 31st, 2030, a peer-reviewed scientific article claims that a chemical element with an atomic number of 119 has been discovered or isolated.

It will resolve as "No" if, by the same date, no new chemical elements have been discovered. Additionally, if any element with an atomic number of 120 or greater is discovered, but 119 has not been found, the question will also resolve as "No".

Feb 20, 9:47pm: Will element 119 be discovered by 2030? → Will element 119 be discovered by the end of 2030?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 49% chance (17 traders, as of Nov 2, 2026).