Will Oregon voters approve SJR 34 (Independent Public Service Compensation Commission)?

Question

Background

Oregon law requires each county to appoint a county compensation board to recommend salaries for elected county officials, however there is no such requirement for elected state officials. A commission was established in 1983 to perform this function, but by 2000 all positions on the board were vacant. Legislation enacted in 2007 revitalized the commission with new membership and a revised scope of work and during the 2008 Great Recession the commission recommended salary increases for various state offices. The commission went unfunded after 2008 and was eliminated in 2017 along with other state boards and commissions identified as inactive or obsolete.

As a result, wages for high-level government positions have stagnated. The Oregon governor hasn't gotten a raise since 2014 and earns less than governors in every state but Maine[0]. The State Treasurer makes less in every state but Wisconsin and Arizona, and the Attorney General's salary is the lowest in the nation[1].

The ballot measure would amend the Oregon Constitution to establish the Independent Public Service Compensation Commission. The Commission would set salaries for specific public officials, including: Governor; Secretary of State; State Treasurer; Attorney General; Bureau of Labor and Industries Commissioner; Supreme Court Judges and other judges governed by the Oregon Judicial Department; District Attorneys; State Senator; and State Representative[3].

[0] Ballotpedia Compensation of state executive officers

[1] OregonLive "Lawmakers propose creating independent salary commission to set wages for Oregon’s elected officials"

[3] SJR 34 Full Text

See also: Oregon 2024 Election Dashboard

Market Resolution

The market will resolve YES if:

A simple majority of Oregon voters approve the ballot measure

The market will resolve NO if:

A simple majority of Oregon voters reject the ballot measure

The market will resolve N/A if:

The ballot measure is withdrawn

The market will resolve based on certified results from the Oregon Secretary of State. Market closes on 5 Nov 2024; market resolution may be delayed until data is released.

Related Markets

(https://manifold.markets/embed/LukasDay/will-oregon-voters-pass-or-fail-sjr)Disclaimer

I do not bet on markets I create in order to avoid motivated reasoning. Any changes to the market description will be noted in the change log.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 31% chance (3 traders, as of Nov 6, 2024).