Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2026?

Question

Katalin Karikó (see Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katalin_Karik%C3%B3) pioneered the science behind mRNA vaccines. She has many of the major awards that normally preceed a Nobel Prize (Japan Prize, Lasker, &c), but has not yet won a Nobel Prize.

Resolves YES if she wins any Prize in 2026 even if shared.

This market will resolve once all the science prizes are announced (or earlier if she announced as a winner), which should be the case by mid October 2026.

Note that this market is for 2026 specifically, if she wins before, that will not count towards this market! A potential earlier win will also not immediately resolve NO because there is a chance she will be awarded a Prize in multiple years.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 5% chance (10 traders, as of Jan 29, 2026).